American Option Pricing using Self-Attention GRU and Shapley Value Interpretation

Options, serving as a crucial financial instrument, are used by investors to manage and mitigate their investment risks within the securities market. Precisely predicting the present price of an option enables investors to make informed and efficient decisions. In this paper, we propose a machine learning method for forecasting the prices of SPY (ETF) option based on gated recurrent unit (GRU) and self-attention mechanism. We first partitioned the raw dataset into 15 subsets according to moneyness and days to maturity criteria. For each subset, we matched the corresponding U.S. government bond rates and Implied Volatility Indices. This segmentation allows for a more insightful exploration of the impacts of risk-free rates and underlying volatility on option pricing. Next, we built four different machine learning models, including multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention LSTM, and self-attention GRU in comparison to the traditional binomial model. The empirical result shows that self-attention GRU with historical data outperforms other models due to its ability to capture complex temporal dependencies and leverage the contextual information embedded in the historical data. Finally, in order to unveil the "black box" of artificial intelligence, we employed the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to interpret and analyze the prediction results of the self-attention GRU model with historical data. This provides insights into the significance and contributions of different input features on the pricing of American-style options.Comment: Working pape

Experience in prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of fetal microtia and associated abnormalities

ObjectivePrenatal ultrasound features, associated anomalies and genetic abnormalities of microtia cases were analyzed to explore the feasibility and value of prenatal ultrasound for the diagnosis of microtia.MethodsThe ultrasonographic features, associated anomalies, chromosome examination results and follow-up results of 81 fetuses with congenital microtia were analyzed retrospectively.ResultsAmong the 81 fetuses with microtia diagnosed after birth, 2 cases were missed diagnosis on prenatal ultrasound, and 1 case was diagnosed as unilateral microtia by prenatal ultrasound but was found to be bilateral microtia after birth. Microtia was accompanied by an accessory auricle in 4 cases (4.94%) and low-set ears in 7 cases (8.64%). 22 cases (27.16%) were complicated with other structural anomalies, including 11 cases (13.58%) of cardiac anomalies, 7 cases (8.64%) of ultrasonographic soft marker anomalies, 6 cases (7.41%) of facial anomalies, 6 cases (7.41%) of nervous system anomalies, 3 cases (3.70%) of urogenital system anomalies, 3 cases (3.70%) of digestive tract anomalies and 2 cases (2.47%) of limb anomalies. Chromosome karyotype analysis and gene detection were performed in 44 cases. Trisomy 18, trisomy 13, trisomy 21, pericentric inversion of chromosome 9, partial loss of heterozygosity on chromosome 14, 22q11 microdeletion and a normal karyotype were found in 2 cases, 2 cases, 3 cases, 1 case, 1 case, 1 case, and 34 cases, respectively.ConclusionIn summary, microtia is often accompanied by congenital defects of other organs and structures, especially the heart and face, and prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of microtia and associated anomalies is of important clinical significance

Adequate vitamin D level associated with reduced risk of sporadic colorectal cancer

PurposeThe effect of vitamin D level pertinent to colorectal cancer incidence, progression, or mortality risk is complicated, and study findings are mixed. Therefore, we evaluated whether serum vitamin D [25-hydroxyvitamin D, 25(OH)D] is associated with the incidence of sporadic colorectal cancer (CRC).MethodsThis study is a retrospective analysis of the relationship between serum 25(OH)D level and the risk of CRC. Age, sex, body mass index, history of polyp, disease conditions (i.e., diabetes), medications, and other eight vitamins were used as confounding factors. A total of 389 participants were enrolled in this study, including comprising 83 CRC patients without a family history and 306 healthy controls, between January 2020 and March 2021 at the Department of Colorectal Surgery and Endoscope Center at the Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine. Adjusted smoothing spline plots, subgroup analysis, and multivariate logistic regression analysis were conducted to estimate the relative risk between serum 25(OH)D and sporadic CRC risk.ResultsAfter fully adjusting the confounding factors, it was found that circulating 25(OH)D played a protective role in patients with CRC (OR = 0.76 [0.63, 0.92], p = 0.004) and that an adequate vitamin D level was significantly associated with a reduced CRC risk compared to vitamin D deficiency or sufficiency (OR = 0.31 [0.11, 0.9], p = 0.03). According to this study, statins did not affect the potential protective effects of vitamin D (OR = 1.02 [0.97, 1.08], p = 0.44) and may account for the inverse association between serum 25(OH)D and colorectal cancer.ConclusionAn adequate level of serum 25(OH)D was associated with a reduced CRC risk, especially for the elderly. The finding on the absence of protective effect of vitamin D in the statin use subgroup, suggests it may be one of the substantial contributing confounders, and warrants further investigation

Affirmative action in education and Black Economic Empowerment in the workplace in South Africa since 1994: policies, strengths and limitations

This paper explains the concepts of Affirmative Action (AA) and Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) and the policies developed in post-Apartheid South Africa. It compares it to similar policies adopted in different contexts in Malaysia, India and the U.S.A. It explains and critiques the South African policies on AA and BEE, its history since 1994 and how class has replaced race as the determinant of who succeeds in education and the workplace. It analyses why these policies were essential to address the massive racial divide in education and the workplace at the arrival of democracy in 1994, but also why it has been controversial and racially divisive. The strengths and limitations of these policies are juxtaposed, the way it has benefitted the black and white elites, bolstered the black middle-class but has had little success in addressing the education and job futures of poor, working class black citizens in South Africa. The views of a number of key social analysts in the field are stated to explain the moral, racial, divisive aspects of AA in relation to the international experience and how South Africa is grappling with limited success to bridge the divide between the rich and poor

Thyroid dysfunction and risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma: a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BackgroundEpidemiologic and observational data have found a risk association between thyroid dysfunction and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM), however, the cause and direction of these effects are yet unknown. By using a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) methodology, we hoped to further investigate the causal link between thyroid dysfunction and CMM in this work.MethodsA genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 9,851,867 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a European population was used to develop genetic tools for thyroid dysfunction. Hypothyroidism was linked to 22,687 cases and 440,246 controls. For hyperthyroidism, there were 3545 cases and 459,388 controls. A total of 3751 cases and 372016 controls were included in the genetic data for CMM from UK Biobank (http://www.nealelab.is/uk-biobank) (the Dataset: ieu - b - 4969). Among them, inverse variance weighting (IVW) is the main MR Analysis method for causality assessment. MR-Egger method, MR Pleiotropic residual and outlier test (MR-PRESSO), and simple and weighted median (VM) were used to supplement the IVW method. Sensitivity analyses, mainly Cochran’s Q test, leave-one-out analysis, and MR Egger intercept test were performed to assess the robustness of the outcomes.ResultsThe two-sample MR Analysis results revealed a negative correlation between genetically predicted hypothyroidism and the probability of CMM (OR=0.987, 95%CI =0.075-0.999, p=0.041). The supplemental MR Analysis did not reveal any statistically significant differences, although the direction of the effect sizes for the other approaches was consistent with the IVW effect sizes. The results of the causal analysis were relatively robust, according to a sensitivity analysis. The risk of CMM was unaffected by hyperthyroidism (p>0.05). No correlation between CMM and thyroid dysfunction was seen in the reverse MR analysis.ConclusionAlthough the magnitude of the causal association is weak and further investigation of the mechanism of this putative causal relationship is required, our findings imply that hypothyroidism may be a protective factor for CMM

Crosstalk of RNA methylation writers defines tumor microenvironment and alisertib resistance in breast cancer

BackgroundThe five major RNA methylation modifications (m6A, m1A, m6Am, m5C, and m7G) exert biological roles in tumorigenicity and immune response, mediated mainly by “writer” enzymes. Here, the prognostic values of the “writer” enzymes and the TCP1 role in drug resistance in breast cancer (BC) were explored for further therapeutic strategies.MethodsWe comprehensively characterized clinical, molecular, and genetic features of subtypes by consensus clustering. RNA methylation modification “Writers” and related genes_risk (RMW_risk) model for BC was constructed via a machine learning approach. Moreover, we performed a systematical analysis for characteristics of the tumor microenvironment (TME), alisertib sensitivity, and immunotherapy response. A series of experiments in vitro were carried out to assess the association of TCP1 with drug resistance.ResultsOne “writer” (RBM15B) and two related genes (TCP1 and ANKRD36) were identified for prognostic model construction, validated by GSE1456, GSE7390, and GSE20685 cohorts and our follow-up data. Based on the patterns of the genes related to prognosis, patients were classified into RMW_risk-high and RMW_risk-low subtypes. Lower RMW_Score was associated with better overall survival and the infiltration of immune cells such as memory B cells. Further analysis revealed that RMW_Score presented potential values in predicting drug sensitivity and response for chemo- and immunotherapy. In addition, TCP1 was confirmed to promote BC alisertib-resistant cell proliferation and migration in vitro.ConclusionRMW_Score could function as a robust biomarker for predicting BC patient survival and therapeutic benefits. This research revealed a potential TCP1 role regarding alisertib resistance in BC, providing new sights into more effective therapeutic plans

A Biomedically Enriched Collection of 7000 Human ORF Clones

We report the production and availability of over 7000 fully sequence verified plasmid ORF clones representing over 3400 unique human genes. These ORF clones were derived using the human MGC collection as template and were produced in two formats: with and without stop codons. Thus, this collection supports the production of either native protein or proteins with fusion tags added to either or both ends. The template clones used to generate this collection were enriched in three ways. First, gene redundancy was removed. Second, clones were selected to represent the best available GenBank reference sequence. Finally, a literature-based software tool was used to evaluate the list of target genes to ensure that it broadly reflected biomedical research interests. The target gene list was compared with 4000 human diseases and over 8500 biological and chemical MeSH classes in ∼15 Million publications recorded in PubMed at the time of analysis. The outcome of this analysis revealed that relative to the genome and the MGC collection, this collection is enriched for the presence of genes with published associations with a wide range of diseases and biomedical terms without displaying a particular bias towards any single disease or concept. Thus, this collection is likely to be a powerful resource for researchers who wish to study protein function in a set of genes with documented biomedical significance

A Putative Transcription Factor MYT1 Is Required for Female Fertility in the Ascomycete Gibberella zeae

Gibberella zeae is an important pathogen of major cereal crops. The fungus produces ascospores that forcibly discharge from mature fruiting bodies, which serve as the primary inocula for disease epidemics. In this study, we characterized an insertional mutant Z39P105 with a defect in sexual development and identified a gene encoding a putative transcription factor designated as MYT1. This gene contains a Myb DNA-binding domain and is conserved in the subphylum Pezizomycotina of Ascomycota. The MYT1 protein fused with green fluorescence protein localized in nuclei, which supports its role as a transcriptional regulator. The MYT1 deletion mutant showed similar phenotypes to the wild-type strain in vegetative growth, conidia production and germination, virulence, and mycotoxin production, but had defect in female fertility. A mutant overexpressing MYT1 showed earlier germination, faster mycelia growth, and reduced mycotoxin production compared to the wild-type strain, suggesting that improper MYT1 expression affects the expression of genes involved in the cell cycle and secondary metabolite production. This study is the first to characterize a transcription factor containing a Myb DNA-binding domain that is specific to sexual development in G. zeae

Genetic architecture of subcortical brain structures in 38,851 individuals

Subcortical brain structures are integral to motion, consciousness, emotions and learning. We identified common genetic variation related to the volumes of the nucleus accumbens, amygdala, brainstem, caudate nucleus, globus pallidus, putamen and thalamus, using genome-wide association analyses in almost 40,000 individuals from CHARGE, ENIGMA and UK Biobank. We show that variability in subcortical volumes is heritable, and identify 48 significantly associated loci (40 novel at the time of analysis). Annotation of these loci by utilizing gene expression, methylation and neuropathological data identified 199 genes putatively implicated in neurodevelopment, synaptic signaling, axonal transport, apoptosis, inflammation/infection and susceptibility to neurological disorders. This set of genes is significantly enriched for Drosophila orthologs associated with neurodevelopmental phenotypes, suggesting evolutionarily conserved mechanisms. Our findings uncover novel biology and potential drug targets underlying brain development and disease